The NFL is heading back to London for a Week 4 odds clash between the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags will try to rebound from an ugly upset loss as they make their annual trek to England, while the Falcons will also aim to get back on track following a double-digit defeat.
NFL odds opened with the Jaguars as 3-point favorites for this clash at Wembley Stadium in London. Here are my best free NFL picks for Falcons vs. Jaguars on Sunday, October 1.
And if you’re looking for more great bets for this game, don’t miss our Falcons vs. Jaguars prop picks and Trevor Lawrence prop picks.
Falcons vs Jaguars odds
Falcons vs Jaguars predictions
The Jacksonville Jaguars entered this season with big expectations after making the playoffs in Trevor Lawrence’s sophomore year in 2022. However, they’ve had a tough time on offense and rank just 29th in the league in third-down conversion rate (29.3%) while sitting 21st in red zone touchdown percentage. Lawrence was expected to lead an explosive aerial attack but is averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt while ranking 21st in pass efficiency rating (84.5).
Now they face an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been solid against the aerial attack this year, holding opponents to just 5.3 yards per pass attempt.
That said, the Falcons don’t have much of a passing attack of their own, as Desmond Ridder has looked terrible under center over the first three games. The sophomore quarterback has thrown for just 553 yards through three games and has completed a total of just 16 passes to wide receivers.
The Falcons ran the ball on 55.3% of all plays last year and likely intend a similar split this year after spending a Top-10 pick on Bijan Robinson, who — along with Tyler Allgeier —gives them a lethal pair of running backs. While Atlanta usually sees plenty of success running the ball, the Falcons were held to just 44 yards on 20 carries last week.
That’s the biggest problem with how one-dimensional this Falcons attack is. If they can’t get their ground game going, their passing game simply isn’t good enough to move the ball. That could be a major issue against a Jaguars team that is third in the NFL in defensive rush EPA while holding foes to just 3.4 yards per carry.
With both teams struggling to put up points and looking solid on defense, I like the Under 43.5 in this matchup and Atlanta’s reliance on its ground game makes me even more confident in this play.
My best bet: Under 43.5 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Falcons vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Under 43.5 (-110)Travis Etienne Jr. Over 68.5 rushing yards (-110)Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 receiving yards (-110)
+750 at bet365
The Falcons have been solid against the run this year but they surrendered 108 yards on 24 carries against Detroit running backs last week. Travis Etienne Jr. has rushed for more than 75 yards in two of three contests this year and will look to take advantage of Atlanta’s shaky tackling in the second level.
Meanwhile, after breaking the 100-yard plateau in Week 2 against the Packers, Robinson was limited to just 33 yards on 10 carries last week. However, he did have four catches for 27 yards in that game.
The Falcons’ rookie has been targeted at least five times in the passing game every week and has gone Over 25.5 receiving yards in every contest so far in his career. With Ridder struggling to stretch the field with his arm, look for the young QB to target Robinson in the flats.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Falcons vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Jaguars as 3-point favorites with the O/U listed at 43.5. While the spread hasn’t budged, the total has ticked down to 43 at some books as of Thursday afternoon.
The Falcons beat the Panthers by double-digits in Week 1 and while they edged the Packers by a single point in Week 2, Atlanta failed to cover the spread as 3-point home favorites. Last week, they entered Ford Field as 3-point underdogs and lost by a score of 20-6.
The Jags beat the Colts by 10 points in Week 1, but they were held to just nine points in their Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Last week, they were 7.5-point home favorites against Houston but were hammered 37-17 despite having a 404-366 edge in total yards.
With the exception of the Covid-affected 2020 season, the Jaguars have played in London annually since 2013. However, that familiarity hasn’t resulted in any clear advantage since they’ve gone 1-3 straight up and against the spread in their last four trips to England.
Last season, Jacksonville fell 21-17 to Denver as 1-point faves at Wembley.
